Estadio Municipal de La Maruca · Referee Pablo Domingo · Analysis updated 15:26 UTC
Velarde vs Colindres Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Velarde and 1.45 for Colindres, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Colindres the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Velarde home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Colindres away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colindres to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 33% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Velarde and 1.45 for Colindres, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
Velarde
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarnizo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Barquereño · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Naval Reinosa · 0-0 (D)
- 2024-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 0-3 (L)
Colindres
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Laredo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bezana · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Torina · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Barquereño · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Noja · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 18 |
| 2 | Bezana | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Laredo | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 4 | Sámano | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 |
| 5 | Revilla | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Cayón | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Torina | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Vimenor | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Selaya | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Atlético Mineros | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 11 | Guarnizo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 12 | Solares | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Castro | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 14 | Escobedo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 15 | Atlético Albericia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Velarde | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Barquereño | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Naval Reinosa | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.