· Analysis updated 18:26 UTC
Velazerimi 77 vs Makedonija GjP Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.57 expected goals for Velazerimi 77 and 4.50 for Makedonija GjP, a combined total of 7.07. That distribution gives Makedonija GjP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score, with 2–4 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Makedonija GjP win
69.3% probability
Expected goals
2.57 – 4.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Velazerimi 77 home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Makedonija GjP away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Makedonija GjP to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 18% / 12% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.57 goals for Velazerimi 77 and 4.50 for Makedonija GjP, a combined 7.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–44.8%
- 2–54.3%
- 2–34.3%
- 3–44.1%
- 1–43.7%
Recent form
Velazerimi 77
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Makedonija GjP · 0-14 (L)
- 2023-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pelister · 0-4 (L)
- 2023-03-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Besa Dobërdoll · 2-3 (L)
- 2021-05-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Veleshta · 1-2 (L)
- 2021-05-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Drita · 2-2 (D)
Makedonija GjP
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · H vs FK Rabotnicki · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kamjani · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Akademija Pandev · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Velazerimi 77 · 14-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Pelister · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · Velazerimi 77 0-14 Makedonija GjP (Cup)
- 2018-05-05T14:30:00.000Z · Velazerimi 77 0-2 Makedonija GjP (Second League)
- 2017-10-29T12:30:00.000Z · Velazerimi 77 1-2 Makedonija GjP (Second League)
- 2017-08-27T14:30:00.000Z · Velazerimi 77 2-0 Makedonija GjP (Second League)
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makedonija GjP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 |
| 2 | Tikveš | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 |
| 3 | Aresimi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 3 |
| 4 | Struga | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| 5 | Akademija Pandev | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| 6 | FK Rabotnicki | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| 7 | Pelister | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 8 | Bashkimi Kumanovo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 9 | Vardar Skopje | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 10 | Bregalnica Štip | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Belasica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Shkëndija Haraçinë | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Novaci | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Sasa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Skopje | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Ohrid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Shkupi 1927 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Detonit Plachkovica | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Osogovo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 21 | Teteks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 22 | Studenicani | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 23 | BVK Konjari | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 24 | Ovce Pole | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 25 | Vardar Negotino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
| 26 | Venec Negotino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
| 27 | Pobeda Valandovo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | 0 |
| 28 | Mogila | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -12 | 0 |
| 29 | Krosu Sport Bitola | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -13 | 0 |
| 30 | Velazerimi 77 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Makedonija GjP win, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 87% and over 2.5 goals at 93%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.