Avangard Stadium · Analysis updated 11:58 UTC
Veles vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Veles and 0.95 for Spartak Kostroma, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Veles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Veles home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Kostroma away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–013.2%
- 0–112.5%
- 2–07.6%
Recent form
Veles
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shinnik Yaroslavl · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ural · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Moskva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Sochi · 1-2 (L)
Spartak Kostroma
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Neftekhimik · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ryazan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelyabinsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Rotor Volgograd · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-06-01T13:00:00.000Z · Veles 2-1 Spartak Kostroma (Second League A - Spring Season Gold)
- 2025-04-19T11:00:00.000Z · Veles 0-1 Spartak Kostroma (Second League A - Spring Season Gold)
- 2024-11-17T11:00:00.000Z · Veles 0-1 Spartak Kostroma (Second League A - Fall Season Gold)
- 2024-07-21T15:00:00.000Z · Veles 1-1 Spartak Kostroma (Second League A - Fall Season Gold)
- 2023-10-08T11:00:00.000Z · Veles 2-1 Spartak Kostroma (Second League A - Fall Season Gold)
- 2023-08-13T11:00:00.000Z · Veles 0-0 Spartak Kostroma (Second League A - Fall Season Gold)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 40 |
| 2 | FC Sochi | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 32 |
| 3 | Torpedo Moskva | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Spartak Kostroma | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| 5 | Veles | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 27 |
| 6 | Ural | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 25 |
| 7 | FC UFA | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Rotor Volgograd | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 19 |
| 11 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 18 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -5 | 15 |
| 13 | Enisey | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | KAMAZ | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Leningradets | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 13 |
| 16 | FK Neftekhimik | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Ska-khabarovsk | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -10 | 10 |
| 18 | Tekstilshchik | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -14 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.