Stadion Trud · Analysis updated 12:03 UTC
Veles vs Znamya Noginsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Veles and 1.26 for Znamya Noginsk, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Veles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.1% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Veles home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Znamya Noginsk away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Veles to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 26% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Veles and 1.26 for Znamya Noginsk, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Veles
- 2026-10-25T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Shinnik Yaroslavl · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ural · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Moskva · 1-1 (D)
Znamya Noginsk
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ska-khabarovsk · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Vladimir · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Bryansk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kristall · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-08-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Veles · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-08-20T15:00:00.000Z · Veles 2-0 Znamya Noginsk (Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.