· Analysis updated 00:49 UTC
Velež Nevesinje vs Sutjeska Foča Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Velež Nevesinje and 1.24 for Sutjeska Foča, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Sutjeska Foča the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Velež Nevesinje home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sutjeska Foča away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sutjeska Foča to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 32% / 28% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Velež Nevesinje and 1.24 for Sutjeska Foča, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.1%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Velež Nevesinje
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Laktaši · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-10-21T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Leotar · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Romanija Pale · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Majevica Lopare · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Potkozarje · 2-1 (W)
Sutjeska Foča
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zvijezda 09 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozara Gradiška · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Omarska · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudar Prijedor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leotar · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st League - RS table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leotar | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 33 |
| 2 | Laktaši | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 31 |
| 3 | Drina Zvornik | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Potkozarje | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | FK Majevica Lopare | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Kozara Gradiška | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | FK Romanija Pale | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | -6 | 18 |
| 8 | Famos Vojkovići | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 16 |
| 9 | Rudar Prijedor | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Slavija | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 15 |
| 11 | Sutjeska Foča | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 11 |
| 12 | Velež Nevesinje | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -23 | 11 |
| 13 | Omarska | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Zvijezda 09 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.