Vélez Sársfield Res. vs Argentinos Juniors Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Vélez Sársfield Res. and 0.35 for Argentinos Juniors Res., a combined total of 1.39. That distribution gives Vélez Sársfield Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 16% for over 2.5 goals and 19% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 26%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Vélez Sársfield Res. win

53.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.04 – 0.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Vélez Sársfield Res. home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Argentinos Juniors Res. away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vélez Sársfield Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 35% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Vélez Sársfield Res. and 0.35 for Argentinos Juniors Res., a combined 1.39 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Vélez Sársfield Res. win53%

Draw35%

Argentinos Juniors Res. win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

65%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals40%

Over 2.5 goals16%

Over 3.5 goals5%

Both teams to score19%

Correct score

1–026.0%
0–025.0%
2–013.5%
1–19.0%
0–18.6%

Recent form

Vélez Sársfield Res.

2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferro 2 · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi Res. · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Unión Santa Fe Res. · 0-0 (D)

Argentinos Juniors Res.

2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo Res. · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Platense Res. · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs River Plate Res. · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Reserve League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	20	15	2	3	29	47
2	Boca Juniors Res.	20	12	3	5	24	39
3	Racing Club Res.	21	11	6	4	7	39
4	River Plate Res.	21	11	4	6	9	37
5	Independiente Res.	19	11	3	5	19	36
6	Lanús Res.	19	11	2	6	13	35
7	Newell's Old Boys Res.	19	10	4	5	9	34
8	Quilmes 2	18	10	3	5	8	33
9	Defensa y Justicia Res.	18	9	5	4	14	32
10	Atlético Tucumán Res.	19	9	3	7	-2	30
11	Unión Santa Fe Res.	18	7	8	3	4	29
12	Estudiantes La Plata Res	18	8	4	6	9	28
13	Argentinos Juniors Res.	18	7	7	4	6	28
14	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	18	8	3	7	-2	27
15	Talleres Córdoba Res.	18	7	5	6	6	26
16	Huracán Res.	18	7	5	6	6	26
17	Rosario Central Res.	18	7	5	6	3	26
18	Platense Res.	18	7	5	6	-3	26
19	Deportivo Riestra Res.	18	7	4	7	7	25
20	Independiente Riva. Res.	18	7	3	8	0	24
21	Instituto Res.	18	5	9	4	-1	24
22	San Lorenzo Res.	18	6	6	6	-2	24
23	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	18	6	5	7	2	23
24	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	18	6	5	7	-3	23
25	Banfield Res.	18	6	5	7	-4	23
26	Ferro 2	18	6	4	8	-3	22
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	18	5	4	9	-12	19
28	Colón Res.	18	5	3	10	-8	18
29	Aldosivi Res.	18	5	3	10	-11	18
30	Barracas Central Res.	18	4	5	9	-13	17
31	Sarmiento Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
32	Tigre Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
33	Godoy Cruz Res.	18	4	3	11	-10	15
34	Atl. Rafaela 2	18	3	3	12	-15	12
35	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	18	2	5	11	-23	11
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	18	2	2	14	-43	8
1	Independiente Res.	12	8	3	1	16	27
2	Lanús Res.	12	8	2	2	10	26
3	Deportivo Riestra Res.	12	7	2	3	11	23
4	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	12	6	5	1	6	23
5	River Plate Res.	12	5	7	0	10	22
6	Boca Juniors Res.	12	6	4	2	8	22
7	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	12	6	4	2	2	22
8	Estudiantes La Plata Res	12	6	3	3	8	21
9	Vélez Sársfield Res.	12	5	5	2	8	20
10	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	12	6	2	4	2	20
11	Rosario Central Res.	12	5	5	2	1	20
12	Atl. Rafaela 2	12	5	4	3	0	19
13	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	12	4	5	3	5	17
14	Huracán Res.	12	5	2	5	4	17
15	Sarmiento Res.	12	4	5	3	3	17
16	Godoy Cruz Res.	12	4	5	3	2	17
17	San Lorenzo Res.	12	5	2	5	2	17
18	Talleres Córdoba Res.	12	4	5	3	1	17
19	Unión Santa Fe Res.	12	3	7	2	7	16
20	Quilmes 2	12	4	4	4	0	16
21	Instituto Res.	12	3	6	3	-1	15
22	Atlético Tucumán Res.	12	4	3	5	-4	15
23	Newell's Old Boys Res.	12	3	5	4	2	14
24	Tigre Res.	12	4	2	6	-5	14
25	Racing Club Res.	12	2	7	3	-1	13
26	Defensa y Justicia Res.	12	2	6	4	-1	12
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	12	3	3	6	-9	12
28	Aldosivi Res.	12	2	5	5	-4	11
29	Argentinos Juniors Res.	12	2	5	5	-5	11
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	12	2	4	6	-12	10
31	Independiente Riva. Res.	12	2	3	7	-10	9
32	Banfield Res.	12	2	3	7	-12	9
33	Colón Res.	12	2	2	8	-9	8
34	Barracas Central Res.	12	1	5	6	-11	8
35	Platense Res.	12	0	7	5	-9	7
36	Ferro 2	12	1	3	8	-15	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Vélez Sársfield Res. win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 19% and over 2.5 goals at 16%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.