· Analysis updated 22:49 UTC
Vélez Sársfield Res. vs San Lorenzo Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Vélez Sársfield Res. and 0.54 for San Lorenzo Res., a combined total of 1.71. That distribution gives Vélez Sársfield Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Vélez Sársfield Res. win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.54
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vélez Sársfield Res. home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Lorenzo Res. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vélez Sársfield Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 31% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Vélez Sársfield Res. and 0.54 for San Lorenzo Res., a combined 1.71 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–021.2%
- 0–018.0%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–19.7%
Recent form
Vélez Sársfield Res.
- 2026-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferro 2 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Unión Santa Fe Res. · 0-0 (D)
San Lorenzo Res.
- 2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi Res. · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Res. · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vélez Sársfield Res. win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.