Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes · Referee S. Zunino · Analysis updated 07:51 UTC
Velez Sarsfield vs Boca Juniors Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Velez Sarsfield and 1.33 for Boca Juniors, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Boca Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Velez Sarsfield home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Boca Juniors away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Velez Sarsfield
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia M. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lanus · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Platense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-21T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Tigre · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Newells Old Boys · 1-1 (D)
Boca Juniors
- 2026-10-21T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasco DA Gama · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Cordoba · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Instituto Cordoba · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Santa Fe · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-03T00:15:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 0-0 Boca Juniors (Copa Argentina)
- 2026-08-08T22:15:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 1-1 Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-02-09T01:15:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 2-1 Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-11-28T00:10:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 4-3 Boca Juniors (Copa Argentina)
- 2024-06-14T22:00:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2023-02-26T00:30:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 1-2 Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-10-02T21:00:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-04-10T00:30:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 0-0 Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-10-24T23:15:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 2-0 Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-03-08T00:30:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 1-7 Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.