Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia L.P. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Velez Sarsfield and 1.05 for Gimnasia L.P., a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Velez Sarsfield the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Velez Sarsfield home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnasia L.P. away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Velez Sarsfield win35%

Draw30%

Gimnasia L.P. win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–113.5%
0–112.9%
1–012.9%
0–012.2%
1–27.1%

Recent form

Velez Sarsfield

2026-10-26T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia M. · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lanus · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Platense · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-21T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Tigre · 3-2 (W)

Gimnasia L.P.

2026-10-15T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracan · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Tucuman · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Banfield · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos JRS · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-11T00:30:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2025-11-10T20:00:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 0-2 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2025-04-29T00:45:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 1-0 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2024-05-13T22:00:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 1-3 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2024-02-10T00:15:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 3-1 Gimnasia L.P. (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
2023-09-13T21:00:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 1-2 Gimnasia L.P. (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
2023-01-30T23:00:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 3-1 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2022-08-14T18:30:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 1-1 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2021-09-14T00:00:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 0-0 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
2021-05-08T18:30:00.000Z · Velez Sarsfield 5-0 Gimnasia L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Instituto Cordoba	13	9	2	2	10	29
2	Velez Sarsfield	14	7	6	1	10	27
3	Boca Juniors	14	7	6	1	8	27
4	Defensa Y Justicia	14	8	3	3	7	27
5	Lanus	14	7	3	4	7	24
6	Newells Old Boys	14	5	6	3	3	21
7	Gimnasia M.	14	6	2	6	1	20
8	Independiente	14	5	4	5	-2	19
9	San Lorenzo	14	5	3	6	-5	18
10	Estudiantes L.P.	13	4	2	7	1	14
11	Union Santa Fe	13	4	2	7	-4	14
12	Platense	14	3	5	6	-6	14
13	Deportivo Riestra	13	2	6	5	-3	12
14	Central Cordoba de Santiago	14	2	4	8	-12	10
15	Talleres Cordoba	14	2	3	9	-9	9
1	Rosario Central	14	8	4	2	11	28
2	Argentinos JRS	13	7	4	2	6	25
3	Gimnasia L.P.	14	7	4	3	3	25
4	River Plate	14	7	2	5	6	23
5	Belgrano Cordoba	14	6	4	4	3	22
6	Barracas Central	14	6	4	4	2	22
7	Sarmiento Junin	14	6	3	5	1	21
8	Huracan	14	5	4	5	-2	19
9	Independ. Rivadavia	13	5	4	4	-4	19
10	Atletico Tucuman	14	4	5	5	0	17
11	Banfield	14	3	5	6	-5	14
12	Tigre	14	3	4	7	-3	13
13	Racing Club	14	3	3	8	-7	12
14	Aldosivi	14	3	2	9	-7	11
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	14	2	3	9	-10	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.