Argentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · Apertura - 1621:45

2 – 2

Monday, 27 April 2026

Jose Amalfitani · Referee Sebastian Nicolas Martinez, Argentina · Analysis updated 06:05 UTC

Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Velez Sarsfield and 0.72 for Union Santa Fe, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Velez Sarsfield the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Velez Sarsfield win

62.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.77 – 0.72

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Velez Sarsfield win63%

Draw23%

Union Santa Fe win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–014.7%
2–013.0%
1–110.5%
2–19.4%
0–08.3%

Why the model likes this

Velez Sarsfield home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Union Santa Fe away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Velez Sarsfield to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 23% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for Velez Sarsfield and 0.72 for Union Santa Fe, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Velez Sarsfield

2026-08-08T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-03T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-30T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-24T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Instituto Cordoba · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia L.P. · 0-1 (L)

Union Santa Fe

2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-11T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-01T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia M. · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-25T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Instituto Cordoba	5	4	0	1	3	12
2	Velez Sarsfield	4	3	1	0	4	10
3	Newells Old Boys	5	2	1	2	1	7
4	Defensa Y Justicia	4	2	1	1	-1	7
5	Estudiantes L.P.	5	2	0	3	2	6
6	Lanus	4	2	0	2	2	6
7	Deportivo Riestra	5	2	0	3	1	6
8	Independiente	4	2	0	2	1	6
9	Gimnasia M.	4	2	0	2	1	6
10	Boca Juniors	5	1	3	1	-2	6
11	Central Cordoba de Santiago	5	2	0	3	-2	6
12	San Lorenzo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Platense	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Union Santa Fe	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Talleres Cordoba	4	1	0	3	-2	3
1	Argentinos JRS	5	4	0	1	4	12
2	Belgrano Cordoba	5	3	1	1	4	10
3	Rosario Central	5	3	1	1	2	10
4	Sarmiento Junin	5	3	0	2	2	9
5	Barracas Central	5	3	0	2	0	9
6	Gimnasia L.P.	5	3	0	2	-1	9
7	Tigre	5	2	2	1	2	8
8	Huracan	5	2	1	2	0	7
9	Independ. Rivadavia	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Banfield	5	2	1	2	-1	7
11	Atletico Tucuman	4	1	2	1	1	5
12	Racing Club	5	1	1	3	-3	4
13	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	River Plate	5	1	0	4	-2	3
15	Aldosivi	5	0	2	3	-3	2

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.