Velež vs Milsami Orhei Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Velež and 1.30 for Milsami Orhei, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Velež the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Velež home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Milsami Orhei away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Velež to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Velež and 1.30 for Milsami Orhei, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Velež win37%

Draw26%

Milsami Orhei win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.6%
1–09.7%
0–19.7%
2–18.2%
1–28.1%

Recent form

Velež

2026-10-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs BSK Banja Luka · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Siroki Brijeg · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Zrinjski · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 1-3 (L)

Milsami Orhei

2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sireți · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CSF Bălți · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dacia-Buiucani · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrocub · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-16T17:00:00.000Z · Velež 1-0 Milsami Orhei (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-07-09T17:00:00.000Z · Velež 1-1 Milsami Orhei (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	FC Lugano	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Monaco	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	St. Truiden	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	HNK Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Brighton	2	1	1	0	4	4
10	FC Copenhagen	2	1	1	0	3	4
11	Universitatea Craiova	2	1	1	0	2	4
12	Mjallby AIF	2	1	1	0	2	4
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	1	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	0	1	1	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	SC Braga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Gent	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	SC Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	FC Nordsjaelland	2	0	2	0	0	2
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	2	0	2	0	0	2
21	Riga	2	0	2	0	0	2
22	FK Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	FK Jablonec	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	FC Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Aarhus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Heart Of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Kairat Almaty	2	0	1	1	-4	1
32	FC Thun	2	0	0	2	-2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps FC	2	0	0	2	-4	0
34	KuPS	2	0	0	2	-4	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.