Stadion Rodjeni · Referee I. Peljto · Analysis updated 16:49 UTC
Velež vs Sloga Doboj Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.86 expected goals for Velež and 0.92 for Sloga Doboj, a combined total of 1.78. That distribution gives Sloga Doboj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.2% probability
Expected goals
0.86 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Velež home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sloga Doboj away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sloga Doboj to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 32% / 33% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.86 goals for Velež and 0.92 for Sloga Doboj, a combined 1.78 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.9%
- 0–115.5%
- 1–014.5%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–27.1%
Recent form
Velež
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Zrinjski · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Bijeljina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Čelik · 0-3 (L)
Sloga Doboj
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Sarajevo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Borac Banja Luka · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Bijeljina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Čelik · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Zrinjski | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | Siroki Brijeg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 7 | Čelik | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.