Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero · Referee A. Rodriguez · Analysis updated 13:31 UTC
Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Venados FC and 1.85 for Leones Negros UDG, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Venados FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Venados FC win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Venados FC home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leones Negros UDG away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Venados FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 20% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Venados FC and 1.85 for Leones Negros UDG, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.9%
- 1–26.4%
- 3–15.8%
Recent form
Venados FC
- 2026-10-24T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Durango · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cancún · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Leones Negros UDG · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T03:00:00.000Z · A vs CA La Paz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Monarcas · 2-1 (W)
Leones Negros UDG
- 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Zacatecas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Venados FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorados · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga de Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 27 |
| 2 | Leones Negros UDG | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | Piratas | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 24 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Monarcas | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 6 | Cancún | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 7 | Durango | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 19 |
| 9 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 10 | Tapatío | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 11 | Correcaminos Uat | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 16 |
| 14 | CDS Tampico Madero | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -31 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Venados FC win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.