· Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Venafro vs Sarnese Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Venafro and 1.25 for Sarnese, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Sarnese the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sarnese win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Venafro home form
0 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Sarnese away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sarnese to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 22% / 30% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Venafro and 1.25 for Sarnese, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.9%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–210.6%
- 1–010.2%
Recent form
Venafro
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Budoni · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Afragolese · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarnese · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Unipomezia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trastevere · 0-1 (L)
Sarnese
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Lodigiani · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Paganese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ossese · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gelbison · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Venafro · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · Venafro 0-1 Sarnese (Serie D - Girone G)
Serie D - Girone G table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarnese | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | Monastir | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Paganese | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Certosa V. Campagnano | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Unipomezia | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 6 | Ossese | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Anzio | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Trastevere | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Città di Anagni | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Aranova | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Albalonga | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Afragolese | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Gelbison | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Budoni | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Latte Dolce | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Venafro | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 18 | Atletico Lodigiani | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sarnese win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.