Stade Emmanuel Murzeau · Analysis updated 06:49 UTC
Vendée Fontenay vs Le Poiré sur Vie Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.96 expected goals for Vendée Fontenay and 1.62 for Le Poiré sur Vie, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Le Poiré sur Vie the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Le Poiré sur Vie win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vendée Fontenay home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Le Poiré sur Vie away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.3%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Vendée Fontenay
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chauvigny · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Panazol · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs La Châtaigneraie · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Poiré sur Vie · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs UF Touraine · 0-2 (L)
Le Poiré sur Vie
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Châteaubriant · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorient II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saumur · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Granville · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint-Malo · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · Vendée Fontenay 0-4 Le Poiré sur Vie (National 3 - Group B)
- 2025-12-13T17:00:00.000Z · Vendée Fontenay 3-4 Le Poiré sur Vie (National 3 - Group B)
- 2024-03-09T17:00:00.000Z · Vendée Fontenay 7-1 Le Poiré sur Vie (National 3 - Group D)
- 2023-10-21T16:00:00.000Z · Vendée Fontenay 0-1 Le Poiré sur Vie (National 3 - Group D)
- 2023-05-20T16:00:00.000Z · Vendée Fontenay 1-2 Le Poiré sur Vie (National 3 - Group B)
- 2023-01-28T17:00:00.000Z · Vendée Fontenay 0-0 Le Poiré sur Vie (National 3 - Group B)
- 2022-05-14T16:00:00.000Z · Vendée Fontenay 1-2 Le Poiré sur Vie (National 3 - Group B)
- 2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z · Vendée Fontenay 0-3 Le Poiré sur Vie (National 3 - Group B)
National 3 - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Le Poiré sur Vie | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 57 |
| 2 | UF Touraine | 26 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 56 |
| 3 | Nantes II | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 51 |
| 4 | Challans | 26 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | La Châtaigneraie | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | -3 | 39 |
| 6 | Vendée Fontenay | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -8 | 32 |
| 7 | Les Sables | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -1 | 32 |
| 8 | Panazol | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 32 |
| 9 | Châteauroux II | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | -3 | 31 |
| 10 | St-Philbert Gd Lieu | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 30 |
| 11 | USSA Vertou | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 12 | Chauvigny | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | -12 | 24 |
| 13 | Angers SCO II | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -14 | 20 |
| 14 | Châtellerault | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -37 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Le Poiré sur Vie win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.