Stadio Pierluigi Penzo · Analysis updated 21:47 UTC
Venezia vs Parma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Venezia and 1.65 for Parma, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Parma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Parma win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Venezia home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Parma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 28% / 24% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Venezia and 1.65 for Parma, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–17.0%
Recent form
Venezia
- 2026-10-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lazio · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Udinese · 1-2 (L)
Parma
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Parma win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.