Venezuela U17 vs Mexico W U17 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Venezuela U17 and 1.22 for Mexico W U17, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Venezuela U17 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Venezuela U17 win

46.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.62 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Venezuela U17 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mexico W U17 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Venezuela U17 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Venezuela U17 and 1.22 for Mexico W U17, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Venezuela U17 win47%

Draw25%

Mexico W U17 win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–09.5%
2–19.4%
2–07.7%
0–17.1%

Recent form

Venezuela U17

2026-10-01T09:30:00.000Z · H vs England U17 · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brazil U17 · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brazil U17 · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-18T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolivia U17 · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-16T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Uruguay U17 · 0-3 (L)

Mexico W U17

2025-11-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Portugal U17 · 0-5 (L)
2025-11-14T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Argentina U17 · 2-2 (D)
2025-11-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Switzerland U17 · 1-3 (L)
2025-11-07T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Côte d'Ivoire U17 · 1-0 (W)
2025-11-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Korea Republic U17 · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2023-11-15T09:00:00.000Z · Venezuela U17 2-2 Mexico W U17 (World Cup - U17)

World Cup - U17 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Greece U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Qatar U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Panama U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Egypt U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korea Republic U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Ecuador U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	New Caledonia U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Uganda U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Denmark U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Argentina U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Australia U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Mozambique U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	France U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Uruguay U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Haiti U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Saudi Arabia U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Italy U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Côte d'Ivoire U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Jamaica U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Uzbekistan U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Croatia U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Cuba U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Tajikistan U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Senegal U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Belgium U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	New Zealand U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Mali U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Vietnam U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Spain U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	China PR U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Fiji U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Morocco U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Republic of Ireland U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brazil U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Costa Rica U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Tanzania U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Montenegro U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Algeria U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	United States U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Chile U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Romania U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Mexico W U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Venezuela U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Cameroon U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Serbia U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Honduras U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Japan U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Colombia U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Japan U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	United States U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Costa Rica U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Venezuela U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Haiti U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Australia U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Tajikistan U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Jamaica U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Panama U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Mali U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Fiji U17	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	New Caledonia U17	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Venezuela U17 win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.