· Referee B. Verbeke · Analysis updated 07:18 UTC
Venezuela U20 vs Japan U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Venezuela U20 and 2.15 for Japan U20, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Japan U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Japan U20 win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Japan U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Japan U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 26% / 21% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Venezuela U20 and 2.15 for Japan U20, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–36.6%
- 0–26.3%
Recent form
Venezuela U20
Japan U20
- 2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs South Africa U23 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Yemen U20 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambodia U20 · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Kuwait U20 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Venezuela U20 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tournoi Maurice Revello table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal U20 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Côte d'Ivoire U20 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Tunisia U23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Congo DR U20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Japan U20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Saudi Arabia U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | China PR U20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 8 | Canada U20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 9 | Colombia U19 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 10 | Venezuela U20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Japan U20 win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.