Shell Energy Stadium · Referee Armando Villarrea, USA · Analysis updated 13:20 UTC
Venezuela vs Australia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Venezuela and 1.80 for Australia, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Australia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Australia win
63.7% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Venezuela home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Australia away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Australia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 14% / 22% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Venezuela and 1.80 for Australia, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.8%
- 0–213.3%
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Venezuela
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs South Korea · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T10:25:00.000Z · A vs Japan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-10T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraq · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Türkiye · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uzbekistan · 0-0 (D)
Australia
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Brazil · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Brazil · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Egypt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-26T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Paraguay · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs USA · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-11-15T02:30:00.000Z · Venezuela 1-0 Australia (Friendlies)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Australia win, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.