Estadio Metropolitano de Cabudare · Analysis updated 08:43 UTC
Venezuela W vs Bolivia W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Venezuela W and 0.47 for Bolivia W, a combined total of 4.97. That distribution gives Venezuela W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 96%, with the draw at 3%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 96% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Venezuela W win
95.7% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 0.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Venezuela W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Venezuela W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 96%, against 96% / 3% / 1% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Venezuela W and 0.47 for Bolivia W, a combined 4.97 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 36%, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
99%
Double chance 12
97%
Double chance X2
4%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–011.9%
- 5–010.7%
- 3–010.6%
- 6–08.0%
- 2–07.0%
Recent form
Venezuela W
- 2026-08-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs El Salvador W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombia W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-02T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Dominican Republic W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T20:00:00.000Z · H vs El Salvador W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Rica W · 3-0 (W)
Bolivia W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONMEBOL Nations League Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 20 |
| 2 | Argentina W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Venezuela W | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 12 |
| 4 | Ecuador W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Peru W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 6 | Paraguay W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Chile W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Uruguay W | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 9 | Bolivia W | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -38 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Venezuela W win, at 95.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 96% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.