JIT Recycle Ink Stadium · Referee S. Kawamata · Analysis updated 15:04 UTC
Ventforet Kofu vs Tokushima Vortis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ventforet Kofu and 0.98 for Tokushima Vortis, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Ventforet Kofu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ventforet Kofu win
48.7% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ventforet Kofu home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tokushima Vortis away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Ventforet Kofu
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Kataller Toyama · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Omiya Ardija · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Kashima · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tokushima Vortis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jubilo Iwata · 0-1 (L)
Tokushima Vortis
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Imabari · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Albirex Niigata · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi City · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Gamba Osaka · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ventforet Kofu · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · Ventforet Kofu 0-1 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
- 2025-11-09T05:03:00.000Z · Ventforet Kofu 1-4 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
- 2025-05-03T04:30:00.000Z · Ventforet Kofu 0-2 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
- 2024-07-06T09:00:00.000Z · Ventforet Kofu 1-3 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
- 2024-02-25T05:00:00.000Z · Ventforet Kofu 5-1 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
- 2023-07-22T10:00:00.000Z · Ventforet Kofu 2-1 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
- 2023-02-25T04:00:00.000Z · Ventforet Kofu 1-1 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
- 2022-09-03T10:00:00.000Z · Ventforet Kofu 0-2 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
- 2022-05-25T10:30:00.000Z · Ventforet Kofu 1-1 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
- 2020-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · Ventforet Kofu 1-0 Tokushima Vortis (J2 League)
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 23 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 5 | Omiya Ardija | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Oita Trinita | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 8 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 9 | Iwaki | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Fujieda MYFC | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Jubilo Iwata | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 | Sagan Tosu | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Tokushima Vortis | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Consadole Sapporo | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 16 | Montedio Yamagata | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 13 |
| 17 | Blaublitz Akita | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 12 |
| 19 | Imabari | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -17 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ventforet Kofu win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.