Dignity Health Sports Park · Analysis updated 05:29 UTC
Ventura County vs Portland Timbers II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ventura County and 1.02 for Portland Timbers II, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Ventura County the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ventura County win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ventura County home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portland Timbers II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ventura County to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Ventura County and 1.02 for Portland Timbers II, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–012.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–18.0%
Recent form
Ventura County
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Monarchs · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Tacoma Defiance · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T02:30:00.000Z · A vs The Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles FC II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids II · 3-2 (W)
Portland Timbers II
- 2026-10-17T02:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Tacoma Defiance · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T20:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Austin II · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ventura County win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.