· Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
Verden 04 vs Wilhelmshaven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Verden 04 and 1.93 for Wilhelmshaven, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Wilhelmshaven the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wilhelmshaven win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Verden 04 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wilhelmshaven away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wilhelmshaven to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 23% / 22% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Verden 04 and 1.93 for Wilhelmshaven, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–18.7%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–36.3%
Recent form
Verden 04
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Wilhelmshaven · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Schwarz-Weiß Rehden · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs BW Lohne · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Hildesheim · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Drochtersen/Assel II · 2-1 (W)
Wilhelmshaven
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Drochtersen/Assel II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Verden 04 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vorsfelde · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordhorn · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Spelle-Venhaus · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-11-30T14:00:00.000Z · Verden 04 0-4 Wilhelmshaven (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
- 2025-08-17T13:00:00.000Z · Verden 04 0-2 Wilhelmshaven (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
- 2025-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · Verden 04 1-0 Wilhelmshaven (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
- 2024-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · Verden 04 3-3 Wilhelmshaven (Oberliga - Niedersachsen)
Oberliga - Niedersachsen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heeslinger SC | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 21 |
| 2 | Eintracht Braunschw. II | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 3 | Wilhelmshaven | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Schwarz-Weiß Rehden | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | Borussia Hildesheim | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Spelle-Venhaus | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 7 | BW Lohne | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Bersenbrück | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Meppen II | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | Nordhorn | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 11 |
| 11 | Verden 04 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Germania Egestorf | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | Hemmingen | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 7 |
| 14 | Lüneburger SK Hansa | 9 | 0 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Vorsfelde | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 5 |
| 16 | Drochtersen/Assel II | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wilhelmshaven win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.