Avanhard · Analysis updated 15:47 UTC
Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 0.80 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Veres Rivne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Veres Rivne win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Veres Rivne home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chornomorets away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Veres Rivne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 30% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Veres Rivne and 0.80 for Chornomorets, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.2%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–09.7%
Recent form
Veres Rivne
- 2026-10-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolos Kovalivka · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Obolon'-Brovar · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kudrivka · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Karpaty · 1-1 (D)
Chornomorets
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Obolon'-Brovar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Livyi Bereh · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kryvbas KR · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilkhivtsi · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polessya | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | FC Kharkiv | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Kolos Kovalivka | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Veres Rivne | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 11 | Livyi Bereh | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Bukovyna | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -11 | 7 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Kudrivka | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | Kryvbas KR | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Veres Rivne win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.