Avanhard Stadium · Referee Viktor Kopievskiy · Analysis updated 16:06 UTC
Veres Rivne vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.40 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Shakhtar Donetsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shakhtar Donetsk win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shakhtar Donetsk away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 18% / 28% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Veres Rivne and 1.40 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.6%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–212.3%
- 1–111.9%
- 1–08.5%
Recent form
Veres Rivne
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Karpaty · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kulykiv · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Zorya Luhansk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs LNZ Cherkasy · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Inhulets · 4-1 (W)
Shakhtar Donetsk
- 2026-10-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Veres Rivne · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kryvbas KR · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs LNZ Cherkasy · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilkhivtsi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Chornomorets · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-27T13:30:00.000Z · Veres Rivne 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk (Premier League)
- 2025-08-17T12:30:00.000Z · Veres Rivne 0-2 Shakhtar Donetsk (Premier League)
- 2025-04-06T15:00:00.000Z · Veres Rivne 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk (Premier League)
- 2024-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · Veres Rivne 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk (Premier League)
- 2023-12-08T15:00:00.000Z · Veres Rivne 0-2 Shakhtar Donetsk (Premier League)
- 2023-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Veres Rivne 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk (Cup)
- 2023-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · Veres Rivne 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk (Premier League)
- 2023-05-19T14:00:00.000Z · Veres Rivne 1-2 Shakhtar Donetsk (Premier League)
- 2022-11-09T13:00:00.000Z · Veres Rivne 0-2 Shakhtar Donetsk (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Polessya | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Dynamo Kyiv | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Veres Rivne | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Chornomorets | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -10 | 4 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shakhtar Donetsk win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.