Veria Stadium · Analysis updated 16:46 UTC
Veria vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Veria and 1.10 for Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Veria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Veria win
57.0% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Veria home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Veria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Veria and 1.10 for Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–09.0%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Veria
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs PAS Giannina · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Alexandros Florinas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vatolakkos · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pierikos · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 0-1 (L)
Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Feraios · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elassona · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elassona · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panthrakikos · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Apollon Pontou · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finikas Polichnis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | Poseidon Nea Michaniona | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Agiou Nikolaou | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Mpam | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Iraklis Therm. | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Makedonikos Neapolis | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Polykastrou | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Akrites Sykeon | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Kilkisiakos | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 10 | Panedessaikos | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 11 | PAO Kristoni | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Veria win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.