Sportclub Arena · Analysis updated 11:01 UTC
Verl II vs Hiltrup Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Verl II and 1.23 for Hiltrup, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Verl II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Verl II win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Verl II home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hiltrup away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Verl II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 21% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Verl II and 1.23 for Hiltrup, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–07.9%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Verl II
- 2026-09-30T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Gievenbeck · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ennepetal · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs TuS Hordel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lippstadt 08 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Schermbeck · 1-0 (W)
Hiltrup
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gievenbeck · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ennepetal · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs TuS Hordel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lippstadt 08 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Schermbeck · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Westfalen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gievenbeck | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Vreden | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 3 | Maaslingen | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Eintracht Rheine | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Lippstadt 08 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | ASC Dortmund | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 7 | Sprockhovel | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 18 |
| 8 | Arminia II | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Erkenschwick | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Preußen Münster II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Westfalia Kinderhaus | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Verl II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 13 | Hiltrup | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 14 | SpVgg Herne Horsthausen | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 15 | TuS Hordel | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | Victoria Clarholz | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Ennepetal | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Schermbeck | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Verl II win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.