Sportclub Arena · Analysis updated 18:10 UTC
Verl II vs Maaslingen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Verl II and 1.76 for Maaslingen, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Maaslingen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.2% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Verl II home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maaslingen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 38% / 22% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Verl II and 1.76 for Maaslingen, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.5%
Recent form
Verl II
- 2026-09-30T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Gievenbeck · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ennepetal · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs TuS Hordel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lippstadt 08 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Schermbeck · 1-0 (W)
Maaslingen
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Westfalen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gievenbeck | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Vreden | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 3 | Maaslingen | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Eintracht Rheine | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Lippstadt 08 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | ASC Dortmund | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 7 | Sprockhovel | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 18 |
| 8 | Arminia II | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Erkenschwick | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Preußen Münster II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Westfalia Kinderhaus | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Verl II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 13 | Hiltrup | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 14 | SpVgg Herne Horsthausen | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 12 |
| 15 | TuS Hordel | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | Victoria Clarholz | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Ennepetal | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Schermbeck | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.