Sportclub Arena · Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
Verl vs Rot-Weiß Essen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Verl and 1.77 for Rot-Weiß Essen, a combined total of 3.26. That distribution gives Rot-Weiß Essen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Verl home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rot-Weiß Essen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rot-Weiß Essen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 33% / 23% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Verl and 1.77 for Rot-Weiß Essen, a combined 3.26 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.5%
- 0–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Verl
- 2026-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger Kickers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Meppen · 2-1 (W)
Rot-Weiß Essen
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hansa Rostock · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger Kickers · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Viktoria Köln · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim II | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Hansa Rostock | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 15 |
| 7 | Stuttgart II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alemannia Aachen | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 9 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 | Waldhof Mannheim | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Preußen Münster | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | SV Wehen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 | Verl | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | SV Meppen | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Havelse | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.