Verl vs SV Meppen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Verl and 2.13 for SV Meppen, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives SV Meppen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SV Meppen win

48.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 2.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Verl home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SV Meppen away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Verl win30%

Draw21%

SV Meppen win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–28.5%
1–18.0%
2–27.0%
2–16.6%
1–36.1%

Recent form

Verl

2026-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger Kickers · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Meppen · 2-1 (W)

SV Meppen

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgart II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoffenheim II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Viktoria Köln · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Verl · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Saarbrücken · 1-6 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · Verl 2-1 SV Meppen (3. Liga)
2023-03-14T18:00:00.000Z · Verl 3-1 SV Meppen (3. Liga)
2022-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · Verl 2-2 SV Meppen (3. Liga)
2022-01-26T18:00:00.000Z · Verl 0-1 SV Meppen (3. Liga)
2021-08-21T12:00:00.000Z · Verl 0-2 SV Meppen (3. Liga)
2021-01-30T13:00:00.000Z · Verl 3-1 SV Meppen (3. Liga)
2020-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · Verl 2-1 SV Meppen (3. Liga)

3. Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	MSV Duisburg	9	8	0	1	15	24
2	FC Viktoria Köln	8	6	0	2	13	18
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	9	5	3	1	6	18
4	Hansa Rostock	9	4	3	2	0	15
5	FC Saarbrücken	9	4	2	3	5	14
6	Waldhof Mannheim	8	4	1	3	5	13
7	Hoffenheim II	9	4	1	4	4	13
8	Preußen Münster	8	3	3	2	-1	12
9	Alemannia Aachen	8	3	2	3	0	11
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	8	3	2	3	-1	11
11	Stuttgart II	9	3	2	4	-2	11
12	Verl	8	3	2	3	-3	11
13	Fortuna Köln	9	2	4	3	-2	10
14	SV Meppen	9	3	1	5	-5	10
15	SSV Jahn Regensburg	8	2	2	4	1	8
16	Würzburger Kickers	9	2	2	5	-6	8
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	2	2	4	-6	8
18	SV Wehen	8	2	2	4	-6	8
19	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	8	2	2	4	-7	8
20	Havelse	9	1	2	6	-10	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SV Meppen win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.