· Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Versailles vs Aubagne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Versailles and 0.75 for Aubagne, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Versailles the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
75.7% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Versailles home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aubagne away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Versailles to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 31% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Versailles and 0.75 for Aubagne, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.3%
- 0–015.3%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.5%
- 2–09.7%
Recent form
Versailles
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Valenciennes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Villefranche · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Quevilly · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Orleans · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Cannes · 0-3 (L)
Aubagne
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs La Roche VF · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fleury 91 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Rouen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Concarneau · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Gobelins · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Rouen | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Concarneau | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Versailles | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Amiens | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Cannes | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 7 | Caen | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Le Puy Foot | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Thionville Lusitanos | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Fleury 91 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gobelins | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Bastia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Quevilly | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Orleans | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Valenciennes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 | Villefranche | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 75.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.