Kerecis Stadium - artificial grass · Analysis updated 00:13 UTC
Vestri vs Grotta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Vestri and 2.13 for Grotta, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Grotta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Grotta win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vestri home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grotta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 30% / 21% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Vestri and 2.13 for Grotta, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 71%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.5%
- 1–18.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–36.1%
Recent form
Vestri
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Afturelding · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Leiknir R. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Völsungur · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs IR Reykjavik · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Njardvik · 1-3 (L)
Grotta
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Deild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Afturelding | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 45 |
| 2 | Throttur Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 43 |
| 3 | Fylkir | 22 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 40 |
| 4 | HK Kopavogur | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 38 |
| 5 | Njardvik | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 6 | Leiknir R. | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 28 |
| 7 | IR Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Grotta | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -7 | 27 |
| 9 | Vestri | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -13 | 27 |
| 10 | Völsungur | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -12 | 26 |
| 11 | Grindavik | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | -10 | 25 |
| 12 | Ægir | 22 | 2 | 3 | 17 | -44 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Grotta win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.