Kerecis Stadium - artificial grass · Referee A. Menelaos · Analysis updated 10:07 UTC
Vestri vs Rīgas FS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Vestri and 3.18 for Rīgas FS, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Rīgas FS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Rīgas FS win
80.9% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 3.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
19%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–38.8%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–38.2%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–47.0%
Why the model likes this
Vestri home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rīgas FS away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rīgas FS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 8% / 12% / 81% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Vestri and 3.18 for Rīgas FS, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Vestri
- 2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs IR Reykjavik · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Njardvik · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grotta · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rīgas FS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Rīgas FS · 1-4 (L)
Rīgas FS
- 2026-08-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Grobiņa · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Jablonec · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vestri · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.