· Analysis updated 12:57 UTC
VfB Lübeck vs Bremer SV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for VfB Lübeck and 1.63 for Bremer SV, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Bremer SV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VfB Lübeck home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bremer SV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 36% / 24% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for VfB Lübeck and 1.63 for Bremer SV, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–18.0%
- 0–17.1%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
VfB Lübeck
- 2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Eimsbütteler TV · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Todesfelde · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bremer SV · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs HSC Hannover · 1-1 (D)
Bremer SV
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Weiche Flensburg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfB Lübeck · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs VfB Oldenburg · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Todesfelde · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Emden · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-11-09T13:00:00.000Z · VfB Lübeck 3-2 Bremer SV (Regionalliga - Nord)
- 2025-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · VfB Lübeck 2-0 Bremer SV (Regionalliga - Nord)
- 2025-03-02T14:00:00.000Z · VfB Lübeck 1-0 Bremer SV (Regionalliga - Nord)
- 2024-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · VfB Lübeck 1-4 Bremer SV (Regionalliga - Nord)
- 2022-12-10T13:00:00.000Z · VfB Lübeck 4-1 Bremer Sv (Regionalliga - Nord)
- 2022-08-14T13:00:00.000Z · VfB Lübeck 3-1 Bremer Sv (Regionalliga - Nord)
Regionalliga - Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weiche Flensburg | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 34 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 II | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 33 |
| 3 | SV Drochtersen/Assel | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 31 |
| 4 | VfB Oldenburg | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 31 |
| 5 | Phönix Lübeck | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 27 |
| 6 | Schöningen | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | Atlas Delmenhorst | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Kickers Emden | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 19 |
| 9 | VfB Lübeck | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 10 | HSC Hannover | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 17 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen II | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Eimsbütteler TV | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 15 |
| 13 | SSV Jeddeloh | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | Eintracht Norderstedt | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV II | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 13 |
| 16 | Todesfelde | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -25 | 12 |
| 17 | St. Pauli II | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Bremer SV | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -17 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.