VfB Lübeck vs Hamburger SV II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for VfB Lübeck and 1.58 for Hamburger SV II, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives VfB Lübeck the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

VfB Lübeck home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hamburger SV II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

VfB Lübeck win44%

Draw23%

Hamburger SV II win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.6%
2–18.8%
1–27.6%
2–26.9%
1–06.1%

Recent form

VfB Lübeck

2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Eimsbütteler TV · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Todesfelde · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bremer SV · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs HSC Hannover · 1-1 (D)

Hamburger SV II

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas Delmenhorst · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs HSC Hannover · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-16T10:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Pauli II · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiche Flensburg · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SSV Jeddeloh · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-26T17:00:00.000Z · VfB Lübeck 1-3 Hamburger SV II (Regionalliga - Nord)
2026-03-13T18:30:00.000Z · VfB Lübeck 0-2 Hamburger SV II (Regionalliga - Nord)
2025-11-05T18:30:00.000Z · VfB Lübeck 2-2 Hamburger SV II (Regionalliga - Nord)
2025-04-02T17:00:00.000Z · VfB Lübeck 3-2 Hamburger SV II (Regionalliga - Nord)
2024-08-10T14:00:00.000Z · VfB Lübeck 1-0 Hamburger SV II (Regionalliga - Nord)
2022-11-25T18:30:00.000Z · VfB Lübeck 2-1 Hamburger SV II (Regionalliga - Nord)
2022-07-01T16:00:00.000Z · VfB Lübeck 3-3 Hamburger SV II (Friendlies Clubs)
2021-11-21T12:00:00.000Z · VfB Lübeck 0-3 Hamburger SV II (Regionalliga - Nord)
2021-09-22T17:30:00.000Z · VfB Lübeck 2-2 Hamburger SV II (Regionalliga - Nord)

Regionalliga - Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	11	1	2	29	34
2	Hannover 96 II	14	9	3	2	14	30
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	14	9	1	4	22	28
4	VfB Oldenburg	13	9	1	3	21	28
5	Phönix Lübeck	13	8	3	2	24	27
6	Schöningen	14	7	3	4	-2	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	5	4	4	-1	19
8	Kickers Emden	14	5	4	5	-4	19
9	VfB Lübeck	14	4	6	4	-3	18
10	HSC Hannover	14	4	5	5	-8	17
11	Eimsbütteler TV	13	4	2	7	-14	14
12	Eintracht Norderstedt	12	3	4	5	-7	13
13	Hamburger SV II	13	4	1	8	-9	13
14	SSV Jeddeloh	14	4	1	9	-14	13
15	Werder Bremen II	13	3	3	7	-5	12
16	Todesfelde	14	3	3	8	-21	12
17	St. Pauli II	13	3	1	9	-5	10
18	Bremer SV	13	2	2	9	-17	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.