· Analysis updated 15:10 UTC
Vfb Marburg vs Hünfelder SV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Vfb Marburg and 1.27 for Hünfelder SV, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Vfb Marburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vfb Marburg home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hünfelder SV away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vfb Marburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Vfb Marburg and 1.27 for Hünfelder SV, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Vfb Marburg
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hadamar · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kassel · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Walldorf · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hummetroth · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Eddersheim · 2-4 (L)
Hünfelder SV
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Darmstadt 98 II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Baunatal · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hadamar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kassel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kassel 2 · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Hessen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eintracht Stadtallendorf | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 33 |
| 2 | Unter-Flockenbach | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 32 |
| 3 | Friedberg | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Hadamar | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 27 |
| 5 | Eddersheim | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 25 |
| 6 | Darmstadt 98 II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 24 |
| 7 | TuBa Pohlheim | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 23 |
| 8 | Hünfelder SV | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 22 |
| 9 | Fernwald | 15 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 21 |
| 10 | Vfb Marburg | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 21 |
| 11 | Rot-Weiß Walldorf | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 20 |
| 12 | Kassel | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 19 |
| 13 | Bayern Alzenau | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 14 | Baunatal | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -7 | 16 |
| 15 | Hummetroth | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | 1960 Hanau | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -14 | 13 |
| 17 | Kassel 2 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -12 | 12 |
| 18 | FC Gießen | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -21 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.