Marschweg-Stadion · Analysis updated 18:11 UTC
VfB Oldenburg vs Eintracht Norderstedt Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.81 expected goals for VfB Oldenburg and 1.46 for Eintracht Norderstedt, a combined total of 5.27. That distribution gives VfB Oldenburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
VfB Oldenburg win
79.0% probability
Expected goals
3.81 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VfB Oldenburg home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eintracht Norderstedt away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfB Oldenburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 11% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.81 goals for VfB Oldenburg and 1.46 for Eintracht Norderstedt, a combined 5.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.9%
- 4–16.6%
- 2–15.5%
- 3–25.0%
- 5–15.0%
Recent form
VfB Oldenburg
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Jeddeloh · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bremer SV · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 II · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Schöningen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Eimsbütteler TV · 7-3 (W)
Eintracht Norderstedt
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 II · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Phönix Lübeck · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SSV Jeddeloh · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen II · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs HSC Hannover · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weiche Flensburg | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 34 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 II | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 33 |
| 3 | SV Drochtersen/Assel | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 31 |
| 4 | VfB Oldenburg | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 31 |
| 5 | Phönix Lübeck | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 27 |
| 6 | Schöningen | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | Atlas Delmenhorst | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Kickers Emden | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 19 |
| 9 | VfB Lübeck | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 10 | HSC Hannover | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 17 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen II | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Eimsbütteler TV | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 15 |
| 13 | SSV Jeddeloh | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | Eintracht Norderstedt | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV II | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 13 |
| 16 | Todesfelde | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -25 | 12 |
| 17 | St. Pauli II | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Bremer SV | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -17 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is VfB Oldenburg win, at 79.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.