VfB Oldenburg vs St. Pauli II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.30 expected goals for VfB Oldenburg and 1.34 for St. Pauli II, a combined total of 4.64. That distribution gives VfB Oldenburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

VfB Oldenburg win

75.0% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.30 – 1.34

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

VfB Oldenburg home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St. Pauli II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfB Oldenburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 13% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.30 goals for VfB Oldenburg and 1.34 for St. Pauli II, a combined 4.64 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

VfB Oldenburg win75%

Draw13%

St. Pauli II win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

25%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals67%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

3–17.8%
2–17.0%
4–16.4%
3–05.8%
2–05.3%

Recent form

VfB Oldenburg

2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Jeddeloh · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bremer SV · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 II · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Schöningen · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Eimsbütteler TV · 7-3 (W)

St. Pauli II

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs HSC Hannover · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Emden · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Drochtersen/Assel · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Norderstedt · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	11	1	2	29	34
2	Hannover 96 II	15	10	3	2	15	33
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	15	10	1	4	26	31
4	VfB Oldenburg	14	10	1	3	22	31
5	Phönix Lübeck	13	8	3	2	24	27
6	Schöningen	14	7	3	4	-2	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	5	4	4	-1	19
8	Kickers Emden	15	5	4	6	-5	19
9	VfB Lübeck	14	4	6	4	-3	18
10	HSC Hannover	15	4	5	6	-9	17
11	Werder Bremen II	14	4	3	7	-4	15
12	Eimsbütteler TV	14	4	3	7	-14	15
13	SSV Jeddeloh	15	4	2	9	-14	14
14	Eintracht Norderstedt	13	3	4	6	-8	13
15	Hamburger SV II	13	4	1	8	-9	13
16	Todesfelde	15	3	3	9	-25	12
17	St. Pauli II	13	3	1	9	-5	10
18	Bremer SV	13	2	2	9	-17	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is VfB Oldenburg win, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.