Marschweg-Stadion · Analysis updated 03:02 UTC
VfB Oldenburg vs SV Drochtersen/Assel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for VfB Oldenburg and 2.06 for SV Drochtersen/Assel, a combined total of 4.49. That distribution gives VfB Oldenburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
VfB Oldenburg win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
2.43 – 2.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VfB Oldenburg home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SV Drochtersen/Assel away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfB Oldenburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 19% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.43 goals for VfB Oldenburg and 2.06 for SV Drochtersen/Assel, a combined 4.49 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–25.8%
- 3–25.7%
- 1–15.6%
Recent form
VfB Oldenburg
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HSC Hannover · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Emden · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiche Flensburg · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Jeddeloh · 1-3 (L)
SV Drochtersen/Assel
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Schöningen · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Pauli II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Emden · 8-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlas Delmenhorst · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Eimsbütteler TV · 7-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weiche Flensburg | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 34 |
| 2 | Hannover 96 II | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 33 |
| 3 | SV Drochtersen/Assel | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 31 |
| 4 | VfB Oldenburg | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 31 |
| 5 | Phönix Lübeck | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 28 |
| 6 | Schöningen | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | Atlas Delmenhorst | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 20 |
| 8 | Kickers Emden | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 19 |
| 9 | VfB Lübeck | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 10 | HSC Hannover | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 17 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen II | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Eimsbütteler TV | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 15 |
| 13 | SSV Jeddeloh | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | St. Pauli II | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -2 | 13 |
| 15 | Eintracht Norderstedt | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | Hamburger SV II | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 17 | Todesfelde | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -25 | 12 |
| 18 | Bremer SV | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is VfB Oldenburg win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.