MHPArena · Referee Christian Dingert, Germany · Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 4.00 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 5.50. That distribution gives 1. FC Köln the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
1. FC Köln win
80.2% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 4.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VfB Stuttgart home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1. FC Köln away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.5%
- 1–46.5%
- 1–55.2%
- 1–24.9%
- 2–34.9%
Recent form
VfB Stuttgart
- 2026-10-01T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Viking · 3-1 (W)
1. FC Köln
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Viktoria Köln · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-04T18:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
- 2026-02-14T17:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 3-1 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
- 2025-09-28T15:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 2-1 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
- 2024-02-24T14:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 1-1 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
- 2023-09-30T13:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 2-0 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
- 2023-02-18T14:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 3-0 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
- 2022-11-19T21:00:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 4-2 1. FC Köln (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-08-28T13:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 0-0 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
- 2022-05-14T13:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 2-1 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
- 2021-12-19T16:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 0-1 1. FC Köln (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1. FC Köln win, at 80.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.