MHPArena · Referee Tobias Stieler, Germany · Analysis updated 16:27 UTC
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.27 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives VfB Stuttgart the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VfB Stuttgart home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Borussia Dortmund away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 3.00 (model 46.2% vs market 31.2%, edge +15.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 3.00 | 31.2% | 46.2% | 2.16 | +15.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 59.8% | 60.5% | 1.65 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.2% | 65.6% | 1.52 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.9% | 26.1% | 3.83 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 39.4% | 39.5% | 2.53 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.62 | 34.6% | 34.4% | 2.91 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.1% | 73.9% | 1.35 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.36 | 68.8% | 53.8% | 1.86 | -15.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
VfB Stuttgart
- 2026-10-01T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Viking · 3-1 (W)
Borussia Dortmund
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Paderborn 07 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-04T16:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga)
- 2025-11-22T14:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 3-3 Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga)
- 2025-02-08T14:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 2-1 Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga)
- 2024-09-22T15:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 5-1 Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga)
- 2024-04-06T16:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 1-0 Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga)
- 2023-12-06T19:45:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 2-0 Borussia Dortmund (DFB Pokal)
- 2023-11-11T14:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 2-1 Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga)
- 2023-04-15T13:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 3-3 Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga)
- 2022-10-22T13:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 0-5 Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga)
- 2022-04-08T18:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.