VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 2.10 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives FC Augsburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

FC Augsburg win

45.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.80 – 2.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

VfB Stuttgart home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Augsburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

VfB Stuttgart win34%

Draw21%

FC Augsburg win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

1–28.0%
1–17.7%
2–27.2%
2–16.9%
1–35.6%

Recent form

VfB Stuttgart

2026-10-01T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Viking · 3-1 (W)

FC Augsburg

2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-03-22T18:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 5-2 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
2025-11-09T16:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 3-2 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
2025-05-11T17:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 4-0 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
2025-02-04T19:45:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 1-0 FC Augsburg (DFB Pokal)
2025-01-12T16:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 1-0 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
2024-05-10T18:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 1-0 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
2023-12-20T19:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 3-0 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
2023-04-21T18:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 1-1 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
2022-10-29T13:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 2-1 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)
2022-03-19T14:30:00.000Z · VfB Stuttgart 3-2 FC Augsburg (Bundesliga)

Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	5	4	1	0	10	13
2	Borussia Dortmund	5	4	1	0	7	13
3	Bayern München	5	3	2	0	12	11
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	6	10
5	RB Leipzig	5	3	0	2	10	9
6	FC Augsburg	5	2	2	1	5	8
7	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	0	8
8	FSV Mainz 05	5	2	1	2	3	7
9	SV Elversberg	5	2	1	2	0	7
10	1. FC Köln	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	VfB Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Hamburger SV	5	2	0	3	-10	6
13	FC Schalke 04	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	1	2	2	-7	5
15	SC Paderborn 07	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Union Berlin	5	1	1	3	-12	4
17	1899 Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Augsburg win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.