· Analysis updated 14:14 UTC
VfB Stuttgart vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.58 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives VfB Stuttgart the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
VfB Stuttgart win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VfB Stuttgart home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfB Stuttgart to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 21% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.58 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
VfB Stuttgart
- 2026-10-01T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Viking · 3-1 (W)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- 2026-10-01T15:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Bochum · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Energie Cottbus · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is VfB Stuttgart win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.