Vonovia Ruhrstadion · Referee Konrad Oldhafer, Germany · Analysis updated 07:09 UTC
VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 1.20 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives VfL Bochum the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.6% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VfL Bochum home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arminia Bielefeld away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–07.6%
Recent form
VfL Bochum
- 2026-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Arminia Bielefeld · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Osnabrück · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 · 1-2 (L)
Arminia Bielefeld
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Osnabrück · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs VfL Bochum · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T11:00:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)
- 2025-12-06T12:00:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)
- 2023-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 2-2 Arminia Bielefeld (DFB Pokal)
- 2022-05-06T18:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld (Bundesliga)
- 2021-12-14T19:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 0-2 Arminia Bielefeld (Bundesliga)
- 2020-01-28T17:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 0-2 Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)
- 2019-08-02T16:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 3-3 Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)
- 2019-03-17T12:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 1-3 Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)
- 2018-10-05T16:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)
- 2018-01-29T19:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 0-1 Arminia Bielefeld (2. Bundesliga)
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | VfL Osnabrück | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.