Vonovia Ruhrstadion · Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 1.72 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives FSV Mainz 05 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FSV Mainz 05 win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VfL Bochum home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FSV Mainz 05 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FSV Mainz 05 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for VfL Bochum and 1.72 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–18.0%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–26.9%
Recent form
VfL Bochum
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Dresden · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Osnabrück · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 2-1 (W)
FSV Mainz 05
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FSV Mainz 05 win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.