Vonovia Ruhrstadion · Referee Wolfgang Haslberger, Germany · Analysis updated 15:04 UTC
VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 1.66 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Hertha BSC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hertha BSC win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.66
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VfL Bochum home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hertha BSC away threat
Scored in 8 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
VfL Bochum
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Dresden · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Osnabrück · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 2-1 (W)
Hertha BSC
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha Zehlendorf · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Dresden · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs VfL Osnabrück · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-07T18:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 0-1 Hertha BSC (2. Bundesliga)
- 2026-03-14T19:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 1-1 Hertha BSC (2. Bundesliga)
- 2025-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 3-2 Hertha BSC (2. Bundesliga)
- 2023-05-20T13:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 1-1 Hertha Berlin (Bundesliga)
- 2023-01-21T14:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 3-1 Hertha Berlin (Bundesliga)
- 2022-02-04T19:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 1-1 Hertha Berlin (Bundesliga)
- 2021-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 1-3 Hertha Berlin (Bundesliga)
- 2013-03-30T12:00:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 0-2 Hertha Berlin (2. Bundesliga)
- 2012-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 0-2 Hertha Berlin (2. Bundesliga)
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 18 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 3 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Karlsruher SC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Holstein Kiel | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hertha BSC win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.