Vonovia Ruhrstadion · Referee Felix Bickel, Germany · Analysis updated 23:29 UTC
VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 1.53 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VfL Bochum home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–17.6%
- 1–07.3%
Recent form
VfL Bochum
- 2026-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Arminia Bielefeld · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Osnabrück · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 · 1-2 (L)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-01T15:30:00.000Z · A vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Magdeburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Bochum · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth (DFB Pokal)
- 2026-04-26T11:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2025-11-29T12:00:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 3-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2022-03-05T14:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Furth (Bundesliga)
- 2021-10-16T13:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Furth (Bundesliga)
- 2021-03-06T12:00:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Furth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2020-11-07T12:00:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 0-2 SpVgg Greuther Furth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2020-06-21T13:30:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 2-2 SpVgg Greuther Furth (2. Bundesliga)
- 2019-12-07T12:00:00.000Z · VfL Bochum 1-3 SpVgg Greuther Furth (2. Bundesliga)
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | VfL Osnabrück | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.