Bremer Brücke · Referee Wolfgang Haslberger, Germany · Analysis updated 06:39 UTC
VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Magdeburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for VfL Osnabrück and 2.50 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 7.00. That distribution gives VfL Osnabrück the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score, with 4–2 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
VfL Osnabrück win
70.3% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VfL Osnabrück home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1. FC Magdeburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–24.9%
- 5–24.4%
- 3–24.3%
- 4–34.1%
- 4–13.9%
Recent form
VfL Osnabrück
- 2026-10-25T12:30:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Djurgardens IF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Bochum · 1-4 (L)
1. FC Magdeburg
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Dresden · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · VfL Osnabrück 0-3 1. FC Magdeburg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2024-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · VfL Osnabrück 3-4 1. FC Magdeburg (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-04-28T11:30:00.000Z · VfL Osnabrück 1-1 FC Magdeburg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2023-11-25T12:00:00.000Z · VfL Osnabrück 0-2 FC Magdeburg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2022-05-14T11:30:00.000Z · VfL Osnabrück 1-5 FC Magdeburg (3. Liga)
- 2021-12-11T13:00:00.000Z · VfL Osnabrück 1-2 FC Magdeburg (3. Liga)
- 2018-03-25T12:00:00.000Z · VfL Osnabrück 0-2 FC Magdeburg (3. Liga)
- 2017-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · VfL Osnabrück 0-2 FC Magdeburg (3. Liga)
- 2017-02-18T13:00:00.000Z · VfL Osnabrück 0-3 FC Magdeburg (3. Liga)
- 2016-08-13T12:15:00.000Z · VfL Osnabrück 3-2 FC Magdeburg (3. Liga)
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | VfL Osnabrück | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is VfL Osnabrück win, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 87% and over 2.5 goals at 93%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.