VfL Osnabrück vs Hertha BSC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for VfL Osnabrück and 2.50 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Hertha BSC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hertha BSC win

58.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 2.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

VfL Osnabrück home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hertha BSC away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hertha BSC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 23% / 19% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for VfL Osnabrück and 2.50 for Hertha BSC, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

VfL Osnabrück win23%

Draw19%

Hertha BSC win59%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–28.5%
1–37.1%
1–16.8%
2–26.5%
0–25.6%

Recent form

VfL Osnabrück

2026-10-25T12:30:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Djurgardens IF · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs VfL Bochum · 1-4 (L)

Hertha BSC

2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Arminia Bielefeld · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha Zehlendorf · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · VfL Osnabrück 1-3 Hertha BSC (2. Bundesliga)
2024-05-19T13:30:00.000Z · VfL Osnabrück 2-1 Hertha Berlin (2. Bundesliga)
2023-12-16T12:00:00.000Z · VfL Osnabrück 0-0 Hertha Berlin (2. Bundesliga)

2. Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	9	8	1	0	12	25
2	1. FC Nürnberg	9	5	3	1	9	18
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	9	5	3	1	5	18
4	VfL Wolfsburg	9	4	4	1	9	16
5	1. FC Magdeburg	9	5	1	3	8	16
6	1. FC Heidenheim	9	4	3	2	0	15
7	FC St. Pauli	9	2	6	1	2	12
8	VfL Osnabrück	9	3	2	4	-1	11
9	Arminia Bielefeld	9	3	2	4	-1	11
10	Eintracht Braunschweig	9	3	1	5	0	10
11	Energie Cottbus	9	2	4	3	-1	10
12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	9	2	3	4	-4	9
13	Holstein Kiel	9	1	5	3	-1	8
14	VfL Bochum	9	2	2	5	-4	8
15	Dynamo Dresden	9	2	2	5	-7	8
16	Hannover 96	9	2	2	5	-7	8
17	Karlsruher SC	9	2	2	5	-9	8
18	SV Darmstadt 98	9	2	2	5	-10	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hertha BSC win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.