Volkswagen Arena · Referee Florian Exner, Germany · Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
VfL Wolfsburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.11 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, a combined total of 2.44. That distribution gives VfL Wolfsburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.1% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
VfL Wolfsburg home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
1. FC Kaiserslautern away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.11 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, a combined 2.44 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–08.7%
- 2–18.6%
Recent form
VfL Wolfsburg
- 2026-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs VfL Bochum · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Darmstadt 98 · 5-1 (W)
1. FC Kaiserslautern
- 2026-10-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Bochum · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | VfL Osnabrück | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.